🏦🐂 Apollo's Torsten Slok, Chief Economist in the past 2 weeks provided strong insights on the current housing market and public / private market environment risks. Apollo Global Management, Inc.

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‍🏘 September 15: "US Housing Outloo

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k"📢✅Summary: High mortgage rates continue to weigh on demand for housing. But the inventory of new homes for sale remains very low.💡 Why is housing still doing well despite higher mortgage rates?

1️⃣ Low housing supply

2️⃣ Decent job growth

3️⃣ Robust wage growth

4️⃣ Still some excess savings left

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September 10: "Outlook for Public / Private Markets"

📢✅ Summary: Fed hikes continue to push delinquency rates higher on credit cards and auto loans.

✅Also, Fed hikes continue to push higher default rates for HY and loans. And interest coverage ratios are moving down for both IG and HY.

✅The bottom line is that higher interest rates are biting harder and harder on consumers and firms, and the Fed’s ongoing efforts to cool down the economy will continue.

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💡 Ten downside risks to the US economic outlook

1️⃣ Households running out of excess savings

2️⃣ Student loan payments restarting

3️⃣ Delinquency rates rising for credit cards and auto loans

4️⃣ Default rates rising for HY and loans

5️⃣ Interest coverage ratios falling for IG and HY

6️⃣ Banking sector loan growth slowing rapidly

7️⃣ Oil prices rising

8️⃣ China, Japan, and Europe slowing

9️⃣ Long-term interest rates rising for non-economic reasons

1️⃣ 0️⃣ Higher interest payments for the US government

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‍#housing #economy #sfr