🏘 🏦 Housing market expert Ivy Zelman gives her view on the current housing market and outlook for 2024, 2025 and beyond. Zelman & Associates - A Walker & Dunlop CompanyCNBC

‍⏩ 💡 In the current new home sales market:

1️⃣Builders have been less sensitive to interest rate changes while supply issues persist

2️⃣ Overall, builders are maintaining resilient sales

3️⃣ Offering highly attractive incentives to consumers, including mortgage rate buydowns of up to 2 points

4️⃣ Builders are meeting incremental demand due to limited existing inventory

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🏘 Existing home sales:

1️⃣ Presently, existing home sales are at their lowest since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)

2️⃣ The current figure is 4 million, representing 3% of total households

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💵 Current mortgage rates and their impact on the housing market:

1️⃣ The majority of average homeowners are 80% below a 5% mortgage rate and 50% below a 4% mortgage rate, creating a disincentive to move

2️⃣ There is a need for a significant further decline in rates for current homeowners to consider moving

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⚡ 2024 expectations in housing:

🏖 Anticipating a flat volume for the year for existing sales

🏜 The new home market is expected to experience a slight decline.

Potential risk of distress in the market

🧓 Vacancies may emerge due to an aging population

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⚡ 2025 forecast:

🚅 Sees a re-acceleration of volumes off a small base for existing sale, with expected 7% increase in existing home sales

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🌅 Long-term supply dynamics:

✅ Developers are finding it challenging to justify returns due to the high cost of debt

✅Accelerating land prices, coupled with inflation, are further complicating the situation

✅Affordability concerns arise as, given the current cost of debt, developers struggle to justify additional construction without government support.

‍#housing #sfr‍

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